On the twenty-fifth day of the American and Israeli military campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran, President Donald Trump declared to reporters on Monday that the United States and Iran had reached fifteen points of agreement toward a comprehensive settlement of hostilities — a claim that Iranian officials, from the parliament speaker to the Foreign Ministry spokesman, immediately and categorically denied. The stark dissonance between the two governments’ accounts of the diplomatic track has produced a volatile information environment in which global markets swing on every utterance and the prospect of either peace or catastrophic escalation appears equally plausible.
According to Newsweek, Trump told reporters at Palm Beach International Airport before departing for Memphis that the United States and Iran had engaged in “strong talks” and identified numerous areas of alignment, claiming there are now fifteen points of agreement. He specified only one: that Tehran has agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons. Foreign Policy reported that Trump told CNN the same day that the two sides had reached fifteen points of agreement, “though he only specified one: that Tehran has agreed not to have a nuclear weapon, a promise that it has made in the past.” The president named his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner as the Americans leading the outreach, according to ABC News, which reported that Trump said the talks went “perfectly” and would continue by phone.
The president’s public optimism was undergirded by a consequential operational order. As Al Jazeera reported, Trump directed the Department of Defense to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of ongoing meetings and discussions. That directive came just hours before the expiration of Trump’s forty-eight-hour ultimatum, issued Saturday, threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments pass.
Tehran’s response was swift and unequivocal. As reported by Defense One, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, posted on X that “no negotiations have been held with the U.S.,” accusing Washington of spreading disinformation “to manipulate financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which America and Israel are trapped.” Iran International reported that Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told the state news agency IRNA that there had been no negotiations with the United States during the twenty-four days of war, adding that the Islamic Republic’s position on the Strait of Hormuz and conditions for ending the conflict remain unchanged. Baghaei acknowledged, however, that messages had been conveyed through “friendly countries” indicating Washington’s interest in negotiations — a disclosure that suggests at least indirect communication channels are functioning.
The gap between these narratives is itself a subject of reporting. According to the Business Standard, citing accounts from American and Iranian officials, the contacts were described as being in “a very early stage and not substantive.” Axios, citing a source with knowledge of the discussions, reported that there did not appear to have been any direct talks between Ghalibaf and Trump’s team, notwithstanding the president’s expansive claims. The same report noted that Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey passed messages between the U.S. and Iran on Sunday and were attempting to set up a call between Ghalibaf and Trump’s team on Monday. CNN reported that two regional sources said the United States had shared a fifteen-point list of expectations for the Iranians via Pakistan, but it was unclear whether Iran had agreed to any of the terms. One source told CNN several of the points would be “next to impossible” for Iran to accept.
The Wall Street Journal, as cited by multiple outlets, reported that Arab mediators privately expressed skepticism that the U.S. and Iran could quickly reach an agreement, noting that the two sides remained far apart. Iran’s demands, according to reporting by four Iranian officials who spoke to American reporters, include guarantees that the United States and Israel would not attack again, specific sanctions relief, and compensation for damage inflicted during the campaign — terms that have historically been nonstarters in American negotiations.
Amid the diplomatic turbulence, the Islamic Republic moved to reconstitute its decimated leadership. The Associated Press reported from Dubai on Tuesday that Iran had named Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, replacing Ali Larijani, who was killed in an Israeli strike. Al Jazeera confirmed that Larijani, the highest-ranking Iranian official killed since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated on the opening day of the war on February 28, was killed on March 17 along with his son and several guards. India TV News reported that Zolghadr is a senior figure in Iran’s security apparatus, a former brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who previously served as deputy interior minister and secretary of the Expediency Council. The National reported that he is under sanctions by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.
The identification of Ghalibaf as the key Iranian interlocutor — confirmed by an Israeli official speaking to Axios and separately by the Jerusalem Post — carries significance for American strategic calculations. As Axios reported, Ghalibaf is a former IRGC general, former mayor of Tehran, and a close associate of the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. He played a central role managing Iran’s war effort during the twelve-day conflict in June 2025 and is currently seen as the most senior civilian official in Iran’s decision-making apparatus. Yet Ghalibaf himself publicly denied any negotiations and accused the United States of market manipulation.
Pakistan has emerged as the most prominent aspirant to host formal talks. NBC News reported that Pakistan is joining a growing list of countries acting as intermediaries, with two sources saying an in-person meeting could be held in the coming days in Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on X that Pakistan “stands ready and honoured to be the host to facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks.” Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Hussain Andrabi told CNN that Islamabad is “always ready to host talks” if both sides agree. Axios reported that mediating countries were trying to convene a meeting in Islamabad involving Ghalibaf on the Iranian side and Witkoff, Kushner, and possibly Vice President JD Vance representing the United States.
The market consequences of the president’s announcement were immediate and substantial. According to ABC News, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared on Monday while the price of oil dropped approximately ten percent to roughly ninety dollars a barrel. Defense One reported that Trump’s Truth Social post briefly brought Brent crude below one hundred dollars a barrel, after his Saturday threat to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure had sent prices spiking. The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned Monday that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” from the war’s disruption to oil and gas flows, telling Australia’s National Press Club that the situation was worse than the combined oil crises of 1973 and 1979, according to NPR.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video statement confirming he had spoken with Trump, saying the president “believes there is an opportunity to leverage the tremendous achievements we have reached alongside the U.S. military to realize the goals of the war through an agreement,” as reported by Defense One. Vice President Vance also spoke Monday morning with Netanyahu about the components of a possible agreement, according to Axios. Yet an Israeli official quoted by Bloomberg and relayed by Al Jazeera stated that Israel does not “foresee an imminent end to the war” and intends to continue operations.
The war, which began on February 28 when the United States and Israel launched nearly nine hundred strikes in twelve hours targeting Iranian military infrastructure and leadership, has exacted a severe toll. According to Britannica, the initial wave killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of other officials. Al Jazeera reported that more than 1,444 people had been killed in Iran as of the start of the fourth week, including at least 204 children. CBS News reported that more than 200 American service members have been injured and 13 killed. The Associated Press reported that the war has killed more than 2,000 people across the region, with over 3,000 vessels stranded in the Middle East due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The five-day window opened by the president’s postponement of energy strikes now represents the most consequential diplomatic interval since the war’s commencement. Whether it leads to the off-ramp that multiple parties appear to seek — or simply delays an escalation that would imperil the energy security of every nation on earth — will depend on whether the chasm between what the president of the United States says is happening and what the Islamic Republic of Iran insists is not happening can be bridged by the intermediaries now working the phones between Islamabad, Ankara, Cairo, and Doha.